Overview - Heroes and Legends of Policy Analysis Seminar Series

Join Dr. Steven Hayward for a special Fall Semester lunchtime seminar series exploring the foundational figures of policy analysis. A strong background in public policy requires familiarity with the trailblazing thinkers—both past and present—who shaped the discipline. Throughout this series, Dr. Hayward will introduce key intellectual figures, unpack their core ideas, and extract critical insights to help navigate today’s modern policy challenges.

Event Highlights

Room Location: SPP room 175
Perks: Complimentary lunch provided for each registered guest
Requirements: None—no required readings, assignments, or prep work necessary

Whether you want to deepen your theoretical foundation or simply gain actionable insights over lunch, all are welcome to attend!

Join us for the second session of Heroes and Legends of Policy Analysis as we tackle the limits of expert forecasting. "Never prophesy—especially about the future" may be famously attributed to Yogi Berra, Sam Goldwyn, or Mark Twain, but it is a warning rarely heeded by an expert class whose sophisticated models and scenarios regularly fail. While effective planning requires setting expectations for what lies ahead, expert predictions carry a notoriously poor track record on matters both large and small. In this session, we will explore what accounts for the frequent failure of expert judgment through the lens of Philip Tetlock (Expert Political Judgment), James C. Scott (Seeing Like a State), Peter Schuck (Why Government Fails So Often), and others.

Heroes and Legends of Policy Analysis Seminar Series

SESSION TWO: How Come Our 'Experts' Are So Often Wrong? The Problem with Expertise

Details